* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 08/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 63 71 74 77 76 78 79 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 56 63 71 74 77 76 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 50 57 63 69 73 76 78 77 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 8 9 18 10 10 16 16 13 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 4 -1 -5 3 1 0 7 7 4 7 SHEAR DIR 154 134 288 301 321 342 342 322 313 316 311 336 338 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 140 140 139 133 129 132 137 141 140 139 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 141 141 140 132 125 127 131 136 133 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 64 65 60 55 55 53 56 52 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 16 16 18 20 22 19 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 92 83 67 65 65 51 26 8 -8 -17 -19 -21 -30 200 MB DIV 35 36 37 16 11 22 16 23 -2 17 23 29 34 LAND (KM) 864 1017 1172 1327 1485 1803 2051 1949 1881 1791 1684 1634 1615 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.4 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.2 19.6 20.7 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.3 26.8 28.3 29.8 31.3 34.3 37.2 39.6 42.0 44.7 47.8 49.7 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 15 15 15 13 13 13 14 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 15 16 16 11 12 19 25 39 36 37 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 3. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 26. 33. 41. 44. 47. 46. 48. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 08/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 08/24/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)