* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 66 69 66 73 73 69 63 58 50 41 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 66 69 66 73 73 69 63 58 50 41 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 66 67 67 67 67 66 63 59 54 49 44 SHEAR (KT) 22 22 24 21 15 19 8 9 11 17 13 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 3 4 5 5 -1 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 67 80 74 80 95 75 87 60 80 112 129 136 137 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 152 152 150 146 139 130 125 119 113 107 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 7 6 8 7 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 71 71 70 72 74 72 72 65 64 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 10 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 51 44 53 54 60 76 66 67 59 52 50 200 MB DIV 48 60 61 80 66 17 37 30 24 24 3 14 0 LAND (KM) 217 234 220 226 245 275 363 454 413 411 409 410 411 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.6 103.4 104.3 105.1 106.7 108.3 109.7 111.0 112.0 112.7 113.2 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 22 32 29 15 26 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 9. 6. 13. 13. 9. 3. -2. -10. -19. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY