* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 61 63 65 70 76 84 89 93 88 82 V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 61 63 65 70 76 84 89 93 88 82 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 60 60 60 61 62 66 73 80 85 85 76 SHEAR (KT) 14 20 16 13 14 15 15 7 2 11 21 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 7 4 0 -1 -4 4 -6 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 275 269 270 235 225 220 173 184 259 269 218 217 219 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 147 148 152 153 155 155 151 147 139 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 138 139 139 140 138 138 137 131 125 117 109 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -49.8 -48.4 -48.4 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 10 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 58 57 57 57 54 50 53 55 50 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 24 22 25 25 27 29 33 34 38 37 40 850 MB ENV VOR 50 29 23 19 12 1 5 -1 -2 26 53 66 69 200 MB DIV 10 30 44 99 63 11 33 11 -7 59 33 76 34 LAND (KM) 1456 1460 1428 1422 1356 1238 1206 1180 1167 1246 1408 1299 1105 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.2 23.0 24.6 26.0 27.2 28.7 30.5 32.2 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.1 50.1 51.1 52.1 53.1 54.9 56.2 57.8 59.6 60.9 61.5 61.7 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 12 13 13 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 52 46 44 46 51 57 44 27 24 21 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 12. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 23. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 2( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)