* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 83 82 84 87 90 91 93 94 92 85 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 83 82 84 87 90 91 93 94 92 85 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 80 81 81 81 82 85 90 94 97 92 82 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 16 16 22 15 15 6 5 1 18 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 4 -2 0 -5 0 -2 0 0 5 -3 SHEAR DIR 263 265 225 217 226 165 172 140 306 208 222 211 242 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 150 151 155 155 155 155 151 145 138 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 141 140 142 139 137 135 129 123 115 109 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.7 -50.5 -49.3 -48.9 -47.9 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 10 8 5 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 55 57 59 50 51 47 52 57 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 26 22 23 28 29 32 33 37 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 19 14 -1 21 17 15 4 35 47 46 22 200 MB DIV 27 56 93 65 21 44 8 23 -9 82 34 89 41 LAND (KM) 1433 1405 1392 1330 1261 1157 1112 1103 1157 1274 1433 1303 1159 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.2 27.6 29.1 30.7 32.2 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.4 52.4 53.4 54.3 56.1 57.7 59.2 60.5 61.2 61.4 61.5 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 48 47 46 44 62 57 38 25 23 19 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -3. 1. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 7. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 17. 10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 9( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 6( 8) 7( 14) 28( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)