* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962010 08/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 46 53 59 67 72 74 77 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 40 46 53 59 67 72 74 77 80 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 46 53 62 70 77 83 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 11 9 11 11 11 9 7 10 11 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 0 5 1 1 4 7 9 17 12 SHEAR DIR 188 244 261 266 277 312 337 340 323 338 4 54 28 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 134 130 129 136 143 143 145 151 159 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 134 129 127 133 140 139 140 145 151 152 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -49.4 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 64 62 58 58 60 53 53 49 51 48 52 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 16 19 18 22 23 23 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 68 60 50 29 9 -1 -2 -9 -3 -7 -17 200 MB DIV 41 27 -1 -13 2 11 -15 6 13 18 4 38 -7 LAND (KM) 1133 1295 1460 1637 1815 2065 1898 1734 1592 1438 1229 1067 853 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.6 31.1 32.8 34.4 37.8 41.0 44.2 47.4 50.4 53.2 55.6 57.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 16 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 12 12 10 14 23 43 43 51 80 74 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 29. 37. 42. 44. 47. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962010 INVEST 08/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962010 INVEST 08/25/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)