* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 65 64 65 64 66 64 60 55 47 38 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 65 64 65 64 66 64 60 55 47 38 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 62 63 62 61 59 56 54 50 47 42 37 SHEAR (KT) 24 22 16 18 13 11 10 10 11 8 15 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 7 11 9 0 0 -1 -2 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 65 74 62 65 64 83 105 83 110 112 134 142 133 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 153 150 146 138 130 124 119 114 110 103 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 74 71 73 73 71 72 65 63 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 16 17 15 15 14 16 15 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 40 33 39 45 48 54 71 54 59 52 57 51 48 200 MB DIV 36 54 55 42 21 22 26 10 9 3 15 8 15 LAND (KM) 215 217 233 262 283 390 477 426 416 409 394 378 364 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.0 104.8 105.8 106.7 108.4 109.9 111.1 112.1 112.7 113.0 113.2 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 17 30 27 4 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 6. 4. 0. -5. -13. -22. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY