* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 76 78 82 87 90 92 96 91 85 78 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 76 78 82 87 90 92 96 91 85 78 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 79 80 80 81 84 89 93 95 92 85 76 SHEAR (KT) 21 17 17 21 14 15 8 7 6 8 22 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 4 -4 -3 -2 -6 -2 -1 7 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 264 219 223 233 236 173 158 233 237 223 214 216 227 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 152 154 155 157 155 153 149 145 137 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 140 142 142 140 140 136 133 127 122 114 108 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -49.9 -49.7 -48.8 -48.6 -48.0 -48.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 11 11 12 11 11 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 56 55 51 48 49 58 57 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 27 23 26 26 29 29 31 36 35 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 24 9 12 27 21 15 23 47 78 72 76 200 MB DIV 41 108 69 11 18 32 18 -2 18 55 76 85 95 LAND (KM) 1374 1366 1299 1230 1174 1078 1030 1046 1116 1253 1405 1283 1128 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.9 25.0 26.3 27.7 29.2 30.8 32.3 33.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.7 53.6 54.5 55.4 57.2 58.8 60.3 61.6 62.1 61.9 61.9 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 49 48 49 56 67 51 34 27 24 21 5 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. 0. 3. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 21. 16. 10. 3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 6( 16) 8( 23) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)