* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072010 08/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 42 49 59 68 73 76 79 82 85 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 42 49 59 68 73 76 79 82 85 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 54 64 74 81 85 87 SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 11 11 5 3 3 15 11 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 2 7 9 0 3 12 17 13 17 SHEAR DIR 268 277 275 282 301 320 359 333 356 8 12 35 42 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 132 130 135 141 144 144 148 156 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 136 132 128 133 139 142 141 144 148 150 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.2 -50.6 -50.4 -49.5 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 57 56 53 52 52 52 51 54 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 16 16 17 20 22 23 23 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 80 70 60 53 40 28 14 12 4 -2 -5 -5 -14 200 MB DIV 22 -6 -10 -8 16 0 9 -8 28 -37 23 13 29 LAND (KM) 1378 1537 1696 1867 2039 1898 1737 1584 1475 1299 1158 970 819 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.8 33.3 34.9 36.5 39.5 42.6 45.7 48.9 51.9 54.6 56.6 58.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 10 11 19 42 51 50 67 80 77 80 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 29. 38. 43. 46. 49. 52. 55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 SEVEN 08/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 SEVEN 08/25/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)