* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/25/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 72 75 76 74 72 66 58 50 40 34 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 72 75 76 74 72 66 58 50 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 70 69 68 65 61 57 52 46 42 36 SHEAR (KT) 17 12 18 14 13 9 9 12 11 15 14 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 5 6 8 2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 64 43 58 53 57 78 87 107 135 132 160 141 138 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.7 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 149 148 140 132 127 120 113 109 105 100 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 75 68 73 69 73 73 69 62 58 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 17 16 18 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 45 48 50 69 57 57 49 60 60 61 55 200 MB DIV 48 54 14 0 -5 43 28 33 -10 22 4 25 11 LAND (KM) 230 264 295 325 381 500 483 460 462 464 455 418 352 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.4 105.3 106.1 107.1 108.0 109.8 111.2 112.2 113.1 113.6 113.8 113.8 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 8 6 6 4 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 28 16 32 24 4 6 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 9. 7. 1. -7. -15. -25. -31. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/25/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/25/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED