* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 77 80 83 86 89 91 96 94 93 87 80 V (KT) LAND 75 76 77 80 83 86 89 91 96 94 93 87 80 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 75 76 77 79 84 89 92 92 89 82 75 SHEAR (KT) 19 15 19 14 8 9 3 7 4 13 23 26 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 -2 -3 3 -4 1 0 6 2 3 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 210 207 220 219 158 153 128 318 210 221 217 248 205 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 152 154 155 155 155 154 151 146 140 132 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 141 141 142 139 137 134 130 124 119 111 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -49.8 -49.7 -48.3 -48.6 -47.3 -47.8 -46.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 8 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 56 58 52 53 48 56 57 51 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 26 27 28 29 29 32 39 39 41 39 37 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 12 16 31 23 27 5 35 60 88 85 88 200 MB DIV 92 66 12 19 66 -4 45 -18 94 47 87 29 57 LAND (KM) 1385 1303 1228 1175 1134 1074 1067 1113 1218 1364 1344 1161 951 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.8 26.0 27.3 28.7 30.2 31.8 33.5 35.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 53.7 54.6 55.5 56.3 58.0 59.5 60.8 61.6 61.9 61.6 61.6 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 47 55 64 57 41 27 24 24 9 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 21. 19. 18. 12. 5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 6( 11) 9( 19) 10( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 3( 7) 33( 38) 38( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)