* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 50 59 68 74 77 78 77 78 80 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 50 59 68 74 77 78 77 78 80 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 60 70 79 82 81 80 79 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 6 2 4 6 10 12 19 19 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 1 8 10 10 9 15 SHEAR DIR 251 252 255 305 265 44 351 301 327 352 343 345 347 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 132 132 137 144 146 144 146 151 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 133 130 130 135 142 145 140 137 141 147 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 11 13 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 58 55 56 53 56 54 59 57 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 16 16 16 19 20 21 23 24 23 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR 74 63 54 45 40 26 19 19 1 4 0 -16 -24 200 MB DIV 2 -1 -1 -1 10 13 6 1 19 -18 30 -3 50 LAND (KM) 1506 1661 1816 1970 1971 1791 1628 1519 1479 1322 1177 1080 945 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.4 17.2 18.2 18.7 18.7 19.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 31.5 33.0 34.4 35.9 37.3 40.3 43.2 46.2 49.3 51.8 53.7 55.5 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 15 14 15 14 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 11 11 12 34 49 51 50 62 82 76 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 24. 33. 39. 43. 43. 42. 43. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/25/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)