* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/25/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 72 74 72 71 66 56 47 39 31 23 V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 72 74 72 71 66 56 47 39 31 23 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 69 70 70 68 64 59 54 48 43 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 9 12 13 13 11 12 15 14 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 6 11 5 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 46 65 52 67 87 123 107 117 127 135 143 159 165 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.3 23.7 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 146 143 134 127 120 114 110 103 97 91 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 73 73 74 70 67 61 57 46 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 18 19 16 18 17 14 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 38 47 57 58 61 72 61 57 55 67 64 62 60 200 MB DIV 57 28 12 21 16 40 24 -3 -12 20 0 7 15 LAND (KM) 290 314 361 418 477 502 501 500 494 487 444 357 245 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.3 22.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.4 111.1 112.6 113.4 113.8 114.1 114.4 114.2 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 8 3 6 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 2. 2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 6. 1. -9. -18. -26. -34. -42. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/25/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/25/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY