* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 92 94 97 101 101 100 97 94 87 79 73 V (KT) LAND 85 89 92 94 97 101 101 100 97 94 87 79 73 V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 93 95 96 97 98 99 97 91 82 74 69 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 11 6 10 8 10 13 20 21 28 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 0 5 2 -4 -2 -1 2 1 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 182 200 221 166 179 165 209 204 190 207 221 230 224 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 155 155 155 155 151 146 140 134 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 141 141 139 137 130 124 117 112 105 103 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -48.5 -48.5 -47.5 -48.2 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 11 10 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 56 55 52 52 49 55 60 54 45 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 28 25 27 30 31 31 32 34 36 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 18 5 13 28 22 9 4 19 50 75 55 54 53 200 MB DIV 65 39 12 60 45 -13 -10 71 82 79 52 72 0 LAND (KM) 1327 1262 1205 1151 1109 1077 1084 1187 1344 1304 1188 1026 848 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.5 25.9 27.1 28.6 30.2 31.7 33.1 34.6 36.2 LONG(DEG W) 53.6 54.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 59.2 61.0 62.2 62.6 62.6 62.3 62.3 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 55 67 62 42 29 23 25 11 5 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):319/ 16 CX,CY: -9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 16. 16. 15. 12. 9. 2. -6. -12. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 13( 22) 20( 37) 23( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 24( 34) 51( 68) 61( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)