* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 49 59 69 77 80 84 86 86 90 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 49 59 69 77 80 84 86 86 90 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 52 61 73 83 89 92 95 95 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 5 3 8 8 7 10 18 13 16 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 3 2 -1 4 8 11 11 15 11 SHEAR DIR 204 236 268 313 22 55 58 308 357 8 9 7 114 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 132 134 136 143 146 145 148 154 161 163 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 133 134 135 142 145 143 144 148 156 158 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -51.4 -50.6 -50.8 -50.2 -50.6 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 13 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 58 56 51 52 51 53 52 48 51 58 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 16 18 19 20 23 23 25 26 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 68 61 54 47 44 34 30 23 14 9 17 11 20 200 MB DIV 8 4 3 12 31 13 -11 -12 -35 -4 0 11 49 LAND (KM) 1644 1821 1997 1923 1810 1653 1487 1386 1288 1113 1001 766 556 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.4 19.4 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 34.5 36.1 37.8 39.4 42.2 45.4 48.4 51.1 53.6 56.0 58.5 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 12 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 11 13 22 48 47 58 74 82 78 88 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 7. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 24. 34. 42. 45. 49. 51. 51. 55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/26/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)