* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/26/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 75 75 73 68 63 55 46 35 25 17 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 75 75 73 68 63 55 46 35 25 17 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 73 73 72 68 63 57 51 46 41 36 31 SHEAR (KT) 18 12 11 15 18 11 10 10 8 16 21 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 0 -1 0 1 -3 2 -2 2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 56 46 74 60 82 89 103 92 110 146 140 152 143 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.7 24.4 24.8 24.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 142 137 129 124 115 106 102 107 105 95 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 2 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 72 70 66 62 53 46 46 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 51 56 70 63 64 58 66 70 71 58 53 200 MB DIV 30 8 9 29 46 16 -1 -19 -29 -2 21 11 24 LAND (KM) 330 386 450 514 538 538 541 540 517 488 489 425 308 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.7 21.0 20.8 21.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.9 108.8 109.8 110.7 112.4 113.4 114.2 114.7 114.7 114.3 114.0 114.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 7 5 5 3 1 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 6 4 7 6 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -7. -15. -24. -35. -45. -53. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/26/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/26/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY