* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 94 96 100 102 104 101 98 88 80 71 V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 94 96 100 102 104 101 98 88 80 71 V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 92 94 95 98 100 100 96 89 79 70 66 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 7 10 7 3 3 10 23 23 26 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 2 0 -3 0 0 0 0 8 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 200 216 184 190 205 116 228 155 208 207 227 200 223 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.3 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 155 155 155 153 147 143 136 127 122 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 139 139 138 137 132 125 120 115 107 101 98 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.0 -49.5 -48.3 -48.2 -47.2 -47.3 -47.0 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 8 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 52 54 51 51 60 54 43 42 39 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 29 26 31 30 30 32 37 37 42 40 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -1 18 16 0 15 1 46 79 116 107 89 81 200 MB DIV 31 26 53 56 9 29 9 92 61 81 23 41 5 LAND (KM) 1285 1241 1208 1166 1134 1120 1202 1315 1374 1251 1060 880 724 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.6 26.8 28.3 29.7 31.1 32.6 34.5 36.3 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.4 55.3 56.1 57.1 58.0 59.8 61.0 61.8 62.1 61.9 61.4 61.2 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 52 58 57 48 29 25 23 17 4 8 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 14 CX,CY: -7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 5. 5. 8. 7. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 17. 19. 16. 13. 3. -5. -14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 19( 36) 22( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 26 65( 74) 70( 92) 76( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)