* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 54 64 71 76 82 84 87 90 91 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 54 64 71 76 82 84 87 90 91 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 48 50 56 65 77 86 91 94 95 95 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 3 3 8 10 10 14 17 14 18 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 8 5 3 -1 7 9 13 12 6 2 SHEAR DIR 220 260 273 228 60 49 15 345 28 27 12 22 16 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 135 139 146 146 147 150 158 161 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 131 134 138 145 144 144 146 152 153 149 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.1 -50.1 -49.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 59 54 51 52 54 53 48 46 49 50 53 57 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 21 21 21 25 26 28 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 56 52 45 40 35 29 20 8 0 0 8 38 61 200 MB DIV 5 3 15 31 30 24 -17 2 -27 -1 21 41 27 LAND (KM) 1782 1948 1986 1875 1776 1601 1460 1375 1216 1089 896 729 668 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.7 20.9 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.1 35.7 37.2 38.8 40.4 43.6 46.6 49.6 52.4 55.0 57.3 59.3 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 13 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 16 35 52 50 61 80 81 80 64 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 24. 32. 36. 42. 44. 47. 50. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/26/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)