* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/26/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 68 68 62 58 53 45 36 29 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 68 68 62 58 53 45 36 29 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 71 71 70 68 63 57 52 46 41 36 32 28 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 17 15 13 10 10 12 12 16 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 0 3 2 0 2 0 2 3 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 53 72 59 85 82 89 111 132 127 148 136 150 168 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 140 135 133 127 120 114 109 106 101 95 88 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 70 68 64 62 57 53 45 43 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 21 18 21 18 18 18 15 13 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 59 69 65 61 58 54 64 65 56 45 32 200 MB DIV 9 18 49 40 13 -7 -37 -32 0 6 15 22 12 LAND (KM) 396 467 538 541 540 546 538 525 502 464 405 347 293 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.1 110.1 110.9 111.7 112.9 113.7 114.1 114.2 114.2 114.2 114.2 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 0. 3. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -2. -8. -12. -17. -25. -34. -41. -50. -59. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/26/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/26/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY