* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/26/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 95 96 99 101 103 101 96 91 80 71 59 V (KT) LAND 90 92 95 96 99 101 103 101 96 91 80 71 59 V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 94 96 97 98 97 96 91 81 70 62 58 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 6 8 5 12 12 37 34 22 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 -1 -4 -2 -3 5 -1 1 5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 217 190 180 199 154 221 194 218 223 233 224 229 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 155 153 149 145 137 128 120 115 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 139 139 137 133 127 124 116 107 100 93 89 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.1 -49.2 -49.0 -48.3 -47.4 -47.1 -47.4 -47.4 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 6 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 57 54 49 51 48 50 56 55 46 35 34 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 32 28 33 32 36 37 38 41 37 37 32 850 MB ENV VOR -10 9 4 -8 0 9 22 50 97 91 98 62 56 200 MB DIV 3 37 59 10 2 -14 65 86 54 34 38 -24 -10 LAND (KM) 1241 1208 1187 1162 1150 1171 1281 1440 1255 1068 893 796 757 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.8 29.2 30.8 32.7 34.6 36.6 37.9 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.3 57.1 58.1 59.0 60.6 61.3 61.5 61.3 60.8 60.1 59.6 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 8 8 9 10 10 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 54 56 53 41 31 25 23 18 7 6 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 8. 5. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 11. 6. 1. -10. -19. -31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 17( 27) 21( 42) 23( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 5( 8) 6( 13) 3( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)