* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 93 97 101 104 105 101 98 89 77 68 58 V (KT) LAND 90 92 93 97 101 104 105 101 98 89 77 68 58 V (KT) LGE mod 90 93 95 96 97 98 99 96 89 78 68 62 57 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 3 5 4 6 16 26 33 27 33 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 -4 -2 0 0 1 7 3 -3 4 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 186 149 173 190 223 312 144 231 214 246 228 241 246 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 155 151 146 139 129 122 116 112 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 138 137 135 130 125 119 109 101 96 94 89 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -49.3 -49.1 -47.7 -47.4 -46.8 -47.0 -47.5 -48.0 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 8 7 4 5 3 1 700-500 MB RH 52 48 49 47 48 47 57 53 41 39 35 32 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 33 29 34 37 37 37 39 41 40 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 -9 -1 7 4 47 72 89 98 95 66 -69 200 MB DIV 34 56 1 -16 34 -1 100 38 79 12 -5 -15 -24 LAND (KM) 1202 1167 1145 1144 1150 1236 1380 1326 1147 1020 917 851 788 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.4 26.0 26.6 27.2 28.6 30.2 32.1 34.1 35.8 37.3 38.5 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 56.4 57.4 58.3 59.1 59.9 60.9 61.4 61.0 60.0 59.0 58.0 56.2 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 40 31 27 25 21 7 4 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -16. -22. -27. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -23. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 11. 8. -1. -13. -22. -32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/10 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/26/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 14( 24) 23( 42) 26( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 11 15( 24) 28( 46) 14( 53) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)