* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 57 66 73 79 82 86 90 92 94 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 57 66 73 79 82 86 90 92 94 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 44 47 51 59 69 78 84 88 89 91 91 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 9 10 6 17 17 10 14 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 6 0 2 14 5 9 7 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 280 337 327 22 30 20 350 8 307 349 321 289 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 137 142 146 148 147 148 153 161 162 160 158 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 142 148 149 147 145 150 155 153 148 144 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.6 -48.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 51 55 50 49 52 52 55 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 20 21 21 22 25 26 28 31 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 50 46 41 28 13 2 -9 -2 12 17 47 200 MB DIV 8 11 19 32 27 -14 17 -14 14 21 63 9 28 LAND (KM) 1899 1790 1691 1593 1495 1348 1266 1101 1000 848 713 652 680 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.2 19.3 20.5 21.7 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.5 41.0 42.7 44.4 47.7 50.6 53.2 55.7 57.7 59.3 60.6 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 15 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 23 45 47 49 52 79 82 81 84 67 54 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 33. 39. 42. 46. 51. 53. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/26/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)