* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 56 64 67 69 68 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 56 64 67 69 68 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 58 66 72 72 69 64 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 14 11 14 4 8 10 15 23 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 0 3 1 2 5 3 1 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 46 40 31 30 32 39 34 347 270 257 269 269 313 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 142 140 137 141 138 131 136 145 143 147 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 145 142 139 144 142 133 139 148 143 144 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -51.7 -51.7 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 69 67 64 61 61 59 57 55 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 8 13 7 11 26 23 3 -21 -68 -99 -110 200 MB DIV 19 14 1 15 6 -4 6 26 20 0 46 43 54 LAND (KM) 335 470 608 733 867 1188 1546 1964 1895 1702 1661 1515 1308 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.9 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.9 19.5 21.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 19.8 21.1 22.4 23.9 25.3 28.5 31.9 35.8 39.9 44.1 48.1 51.6 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 15 17 19 20 20 21 20 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 18 11 9 16 12 10 20 46 37 40 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 31. 39. 42. 44. 43. 42. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/26/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED