* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/26/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 75 71 57 49 39 30 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 75 71 57 49 39 30 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 82 81 79 75 66 56 48 41 35 30 27 23 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 15 17 18 14 11 12 12 9 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 4 4 6 3 4 1 -1 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 63 83 74 55 73 108 130 131 151 173 185 168 148 SST (C) 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.3 23.9 23.5 23.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 134 131 128 120 115 109 102 98 93 89 83 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 71 65 62 57 53 46 44 41 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 21 20 17 17 14 13 11 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 53 68 66 64 61 58 57 59 57 53 43 38 17 200 MB DIV 47 35 0 -28 -10 -26 -12 -3 -4 9 18 4 -2 LAND (KM) 521 543 542 538 544 530 509 457 387 336 312 266 209 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.6 113.9 113.9 113.8 113.8 113.9 113.9 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -39. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -19. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -9. -23. -31. -41. -50. -59. -69. -77. -86. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/26/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/26/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY