* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 100 103 104 106 107 103 93 84 74 63 48 V (KT) LAND 95 97 100 103 104 106 107 103 93 84 74 63 48 V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 98 100 100 99 98 92 84 74 65 59 55 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 4 8 10 8 20 32 23 35 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -3 -1 0 -6 6 5 1 3 -1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 151 142 157 290 253 173 219 206 234 227 226 242 267 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.8 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 152 149 144 134 125 118 113 109 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 137 136 132 128 123 114 106 99 95 93 94 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.9 -50.6 -49.4 -49.3 -49.3 -48.5 -47.5 -46.5 -47.3 -48.4 -49.1 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 7 6 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 47 48 55 51 43 35 37 31 24 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 34 35 35 36 39 43 39 37 37 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -17 -9 -1 -1 22 48 103 99 102 105 -5 -51 200 MB DIV 43 14 7 16 43 50 58 66 22 15 8 -25 -32 LAND (KM) 1186 1167 1159 1173 1195 1309 1431 1258 1101 994 909 823 825 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.4 28.0 29.4 31.2 33.1 35.1 36.8 38.3 39.3 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.1 59.0 59.8 60.5 61.1 60.7 59.8 58.7 57.1 55.3 52.5 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 53 39 30 27 26 21 11 8 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -14. -22. -28. -33. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 5. 4. 3. 0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 8. -2. -11. -21. -32. -47. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 22( 35) 26( 52) 27( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 19( 27) 15( 38) 3( 40) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)