* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 50 53 60 68 74 76 83 86 89 91 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 50 53 60 68 74 76 83 86 89 91 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 48 55 63 71 77 82 86 88 89 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 3 7 4 14 11 15 12 17 3 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 0 1 6 13 11 9 10 5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 250 294 48 10 8 24 8 22 350 279 268 254 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 144 146 146 147 150 158 163 161 158 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 144 146 146 146 146 154 156 152 146 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.5 -48.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 11 12 12 14 13 13 12 10 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 47 49 49 51 51 50 54 58 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 19 21 19 19 22 25 22 28 28 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 53 44 40 21 7 -6 -6 7 32 50 74 200 MB DIV 9 2 18 19 -2 12 -31 5 -5 35 20 31 36 LAND (KM) 1810 1710 1619 1520 1434 1329 1187 1032 918 730 617 613 666 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.8 18.9 20.1 21.4 22.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.6 41.2 42.7 44.4 46.0 49.2 52.1 54.7 57.0 59.0 60.8 62.0 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 15 15 13 13 11 11 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 45 49 49 44 64 83 84 83 76 48 64 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. 7. 7. 8. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 20. 28. 34. 36. 43. 46. 49. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)