* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 57 65 69 71 69 67 65 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 57 65 69 71 69 67 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 42 51 61 70 76 75 72 67 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 14 14 14 11 2 6 13 22 24 34 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 0 2 1 7 5 2 0 3 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 38 42 41 50 59 3 300 288 266 270 296 318 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.1 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 139 140 140 138 133 141 145 141 148 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 142 141 142 143 142 136 145 147 140 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -51.7 -51.5 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 69 67 65 64 59 57 57 56 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 13 11 12 13 22 16 -2 -38 -86 -106 -54 200 MB DIV 15 9 16 9 -11 1 15 20 25 27 27 26 60 LAND (KM) 549 672 797 910 1028 1311 1666 2031 1802 1677 1644 1455 1360 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.0 12.4 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.0 18.5 20.4 22.9 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 21.7 22.9 24.1 25.4 26.7 29.6 33.0 37.0 41.4 45.6 49.3 52.6 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 15 16 19 21 22 21 20 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 10 14 14 16 14 11 36 45 39 42 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 32. 40. 44. 46. 44. 42. 40. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/27/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED