* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/27/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 75 71 59 49 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 75 71 59 49 36 26 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 79 76 72 62 54 46 39 33 29 25 21 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 14 15 17 13 12 12 14 11 10 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 2 0 5 -1 3 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 75 73 63 75 91 105 125 153 158 170 171 137 125 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 129 127 122 116 108 103 99 94 88 83 79 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 66 67 61 55 48 43 40 40 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 20 20 17 17 14 13 11 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 66 62 58 64 59 65 60 57 53 35 23 200 MB DIV 28 -2 -25 -22 -16 -28 -23 -18 0 -16 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 541 533 538 547 563 554 532 478 426 380 345 308 268 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.0 113.6 114.2 114.6 114.7 114.6 114.6 114.7 114.7 114.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -27. -33. -38. -44. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -11. -14. -18. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -9. -21. -31. -44. -54. -64. -75. -83. -91. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY