* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 117 118 119 118 110 104 89 78 66 56 48 V (KT) LAND 110 114 117 118 119 118 110 104 89 78 66 56 48 V (KT) LGE mod 110 114 114 112 110 105 100 91 79 69 63 60 57 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 3 6 3 13 23 30 27 27 25 35 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -3 0 1 5 -1 5 8 6 1 -2 -5 13 SHEAR DIR 109 147 59 263 250 243 243 222 230 221 230 202 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.0 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 153 151 147 138 127 120 118 117 115 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 132 129 126 119 109 103 101 101 99 93 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -49.7 -49.5 -49.5 -48.6 -47.9 -46.7 -47.1 -47.1 -47.8 -48.4 -49.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 10 8 7 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 52 48 50 48 48 57 49 42 43 42 44 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 33 35 35 35 36 38 44 39 39 34 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -24 -14 -12 -17 30 72 106 98 67 58 40 100 200 MB DIV 16 10 27 38 23 95 26 60 8 16 9 21 15 LAND (KM) 1161 1166 1178 1219 1266 1429 1320 1191 1086 968 914 979 1197 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.9 27.5 28.2 28.9 30.5 32.5 34.6 36.5 38.0 39.1 40.4 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.1 59.9 60.4 60.9 60.9 59.8 57.8 55.3 52.3 48.8 44.6 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 12 13 14 14 16 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 36 28 27 26 24 18 8 0 2 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -15. -26. -36. -45. -50. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 10. 7. 6. 3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 0. -6. -21. -32. -44. -54. -62. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 32( 52) 33( 68) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 46 52( 74) 24( 80) 0( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)