* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 53 61 68 72 76 80 84 88 91 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 53 61 68 72 76 80 84 88 91 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 46 49 56 64 70 76 80 82 84 87 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 4 11 14 13 17 13 12 10 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 3 3 7 9 11 13 11 5 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 297 29 353 23 19 33 27 11 357 298 272 241 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 146 148 148 149 157 165 165 159 157 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 146 148 148 148 156 163 160 148 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.2 -49.9 -50.1 -49.5 -49.8 -49.5 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 49 47 49 51 53 48 51 51 47 52 57 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 19 20 20 23 23 25 27 27 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 42 38 25 9 -7 -12 -16 10 16 57 70 200 MB DIV -2 10 10 -6 -12 6 -12 28 -8 49 -2 31 42 LAND (KM) 1715 1623 1530 1439 1367 1245 1033 903 730 559 479 535 692 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.6 19.0 20.3 21.3 22.9 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.5 44.0 45.7 47.3 50.6 53.6 56.4 58.8 60.8 62.4 63.9 65.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 15 14 14 13 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 43 47 50 46 48 81 83 93 95 55 62 63 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 21. 28. 32. 36. 40. 44. 48. 51. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/27/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)