* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 35 43 53 60 65 68 71 72 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 35 43 53 60 65 68 71 72 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 54 62 67 69 70 69 SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 17 14 9 5 5 10 14 15 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 1 1 7 8 0 1 5 2 3 SHEAR DIR 51 52 62 64 63 72 358 274 241 229 304 311 313 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.9 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 140 141 135 139 148 148 150 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 142 143 144 145 140 145 154 152 151 155 152 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 67 68 65 64 58 60 55 56 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 23 24 23 30 33 18 1 -41 -62 -41 -1 200 MB DIV 2 3 -9 -19 -17 -1 14 5 17 34 45 36 19 LAND (KM) 655 790 915 1058 1207 1544 1956 1772 1548 1467 1352 1169 1119 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.7 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.8 19.7 22.5 25.5 LONG(DEG W) 22.8 24.2 25.5 27.0 28.5 31.8 35.7 40.0 44.4 48.6 52.4 55.4 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 20 21 21 21 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 13 15 16 17 13 32 48 50 50 55 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 18. 28. 35. 40. 43. 46. 47. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/27/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED