* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/27/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 62 59 54 46 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 62 59 54 46 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 63 60 56 49 43 37 31 26 22 19 15 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 8 12 12 17 11 15 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 3 6 4 3 0 -1 2 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 51 67 80 110 143 138 162 160 171 164 143 158 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.1 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.5 22.7 22.1 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 127 122 119 111 104 101 98 94 86 79 75 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 73 67 67 64 59 51 45 42 39 39 36 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 19 19 18 17 14 14 11 8 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 65 59 56 54 56 58 59 60 46 41 24 20 200 MB DIV 4 -14 -34 -25 -19 -42 -16 -13 14 18 15 11 15 LAND (KM) 533 534 542 545 553 538 463 424 390 332 240 204 190 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.5 113.9 114.4 114.4 114.4 114.3 114.1 113.9 114.0 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -37. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -11. -16. -20. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -16. -24. -35. -43. -54. -65. -76. -85. -91. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY