* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 55 62 69 73 76 81 85 90 93 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 55 62 69 73 76 81 85 90 93 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 44 47 51 58 65 70 75 77 80 83 87 SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 8 15 8 22 16 18 12 15 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 4 7 11 8 9 12 1 0 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 273 64 335 8 351 21 1 18 334 351 283 233 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 147 147 148 152 162 167 162 158 157 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 148 147 148 152 160 162 154 148 144 142 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 49 50 54 51 51 49 54 55 59 61 66 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 18 20 21 23 23 25 27 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 34 25 14 1 -16 -19 -7 9 14 63 57 200 MB DIV 23 20 6 0 -3 -17 20 24 51 32 24 60 99 LAND (KM) 1609 1513 1426 1347 1277 1133 948 823 608 485 477 569 713 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.2 20.5 21.9 23.4 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.6 44.2 45.8 47.4 49.0 52.3 55.3 57.9 60.0 61.7 63.2 64.4 65.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 12 11 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 49 45 48 61 82 92 91 91 50 71 59 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 33. 36. 41. 45. 50. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/27/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)