* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 51 57 61 63 66 65 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 51 57 61 63 66 65 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 52 58 60 60 59 58 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 15 13 4 6 9 18 16 15 26 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 0 5 2 3 -1 -2 9 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 56 64 59 67 43 326 253 256 254 286 310 301 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.4 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 139 141 139 133 142 146 146 152 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 142 142 145 143 137 147 150 147 149 152 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -51.9 -51.8 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 63 60 57 56 53 52 57 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 11 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 22 19 24 34 25 9 -20 -66 -92 -74 -52 200 MB DIV 8 -6 -24 -11 0 -3 4 29 10 38 35 45 23 LAND (KM) 708 831 960 1115 1276 1665 2015 1773 1613 1530 1311 1139 1156 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.7 15.8 16.9 18.1 19.7 21.8 24.2 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.7 26.1 27.7 29.3 33.0 37.2 41.7 46.1 50.1 53.7 56.7 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 18 20 22 22 21 20 19 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 15 16 14 12 39 50 46 47 64 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 26. 32. 36. 38. 41. 40. 37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/27/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED