* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/27/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 57 49 42 37 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 57 49 42 37 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 59 54 50 46 39 33 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 16 11 12 12 14 10 11 9 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 1 5 -1 4 0 2 -3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 60 76 89 113 113 106 140 140 154 156 131 126 149 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.1 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 123 120 116 109 105 101 94 88 85 81 79 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 74 67 67 64 61 54 50 44 43 45 46 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 20 18 18 15 14 14 11 9 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 61 57 54 54 48 50 50 59 46 38 28 22 14 200 MB DIV -8 -19 2 -18 -31 -5 -17 4 5 17 3 8 -8 LAND (KM) 505 508 519 515 516 472 432 356 277 215 180 144 121 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.8 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.2 113.6 113.9 114.0 113.9 113.8 113.6 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -24. -29. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -9. -13. -16. -21. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -28. -41. -48. -55. -63. -69. -79. -87. -91. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY