* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 115 114 114 107 94 83 68 59 49 43 33 V (KT) LAND 115 115 115 114 114 107 94 83 68 59 49 43 33 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 111 108 105 100 90 77 68 65 63 57 49 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 8 8 26 33 29 27 33 49 67 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 3 1 6 7 -2 1 -3 2 3 -6 SHEAR DIR 56 251 224 335 208 237 218 221 209 213 212 219 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.9 26.8 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.1 23.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 149 147 138 124 118 119 120 112 101 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 132 130 128 128 123 109 100 102 107 102 92 79 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.8 -48.9 -48.3 -47.5 -47.2 -46.2 -47.3 -47.3 -47.9 -47.6 -46.6 -46.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 11 9 6 4 4 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 46 42 43 48 53 48 52 46 43 43 33 25 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 37 38 39 40 39 42 44 44 36 32 33 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -14 -6 14 32 83 105 96 76 82 121 160 81 200 MB DIV 21 15 16 51 102 44 62 22 55 44 6 38 -8 LAND (KM) 1130 1183 1241 1326 1412 1331 1163 1033 959 990 1243 1668 1082 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.5 30.3 32.7 35.6 37.4 38.3 39.5 41.5 44.2 47.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.1 60.5 60.8 60.8 60.8 58.9 55.7 53.0 50.4 45.9 39.3 31.8 23.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 11 17 16 13 15 23 29 32 33 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 25 21 18 10 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -21. -34. -45. -53. -58. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -5. -3. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -26. -30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. -2. -4. -4. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -8. -21. -32. -47. -56. -66. -72. -82. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 27( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 48 30( 64) 1( 64) 0( 64) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)