* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 49 54 64 71 77 83 89 95 98 102 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 49 54 64 71 77 83 89 95 98 102 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 48 51 59 68 77 85 92 95 96 95 SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 13 14 10 10 9 8 9 16 17 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 7 5 10 12 13 11 13 4 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 21 290 354 20 45 57 32 22 359 307 219 211 175 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 150 152 164 167 164 160 158 158 158 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 150 153 154 164 163 156 151 149 147 143 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -49.5 -49.7 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 47 46 49 47 47 46 47 46 53 57 59 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 17 19 20 21 22 25 25 28 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 42 38 31 17 9 -1 -5 0 16 33 61 59 93 200 MB DIV 2 9 -9 -13 19 15 23 -13 39 23 71 28 61 LAND (KM) 1441 1359 1297 1245 1139 917 782 548 371 296 456 577 679 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.5 22.6 24.3 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.9 48.6 50.5 52.3 55.5 58.3 60.5 62.3 64.1 65.8 67.3 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 17 18 16 15 12 10 10 12 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 42 58 80 83 96 95 95 85 78 50 58 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 24. 31. 37. 44. 49. 55. 58. 62. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)