* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 49 55 58 61 61 60 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 49 55 58 61 61 60 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 50 55 57 58 57 55 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 14 8 3 3 10 13 17 27 24 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 0 6 6 0 0 1 1 8 3 SHEAR DIR 82 82 80 98 117 84 260 225 229 271 306 307 299 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 139 140 141 136 134 145 146 148 155 158 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 141 143 144 140 139 150 150 149 154 152 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 60 59 60 60 54 53 51 50 55 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 21 26 31 38 20 10 -24 -73 -77 -43 -56 200 MB DIV -3 -15 -16 -9 -16 -7 8 21 47 28 51 44 43 LAND (KM) 798 921 1054 1209 1368 1771 1949 1705 1571 1443 1222 1156 1335 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.0 16.0 16.9 18.1 19.6 22.1 25.3 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 24.3 25.7 27.1 28.7 30.2 34.0 38.2 42.7 47.0 51.1 54.7 57.4 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 16 17 20 22 22 21 20 20 19 17 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 16 17 12 15 46 47 44 52 55 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 30. 33. 36. 36. 35. 31. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/27/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)