* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/27/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 43 37 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 43 37 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 44 40 37 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 21 13 12 13 13 13 17 13 11 13 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 5 6 5 2 0 -3 -1 1 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 84 98 117 125 112 136 142 151 163 149 117 118 115 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.6 24.2 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.2 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 118 113 107 104 101 95 92 92 90 85 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 61 55 49 43 40 37 40 40 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 18 17 16 14 13 11 9 6 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 51 43 45 49 58 52 46 44 36 29 22 200 MB DIV -8 15 4 -22 -23 -11 -11 16 8 7 8 8 -7 LAND (KM) 475 474 480 469 465 434 418 376 317 297 297 269 232 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.3 21.7 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.8 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.4 113.7 113.8 113.8 113.8 113.8 113.8 113.8 113.8 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 4 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -23. -35. -43. -54. -61. -69. -78. -84. -86. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/27/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY