* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 117 118 117 109 94 79 69 56 46 35 25 V (KT) LAND 115 115 117 118 117 109 94 79 69 56 46 35 25 V (KT) LGE mod 115 113 110 108 105 97 84 73 67 64 60 53 45 SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 5 10 26 35 27 28 39 57 54 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 3 15 14 2 -2 -1 0 2 6 9 SHEAR DIR 218 312 292 208 224 222 227 223 219 221 222 218 177 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.5 25.5 24.7 20.5 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 147 144 131 123 121 122 114 108 87 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 128 126 115 107 104 107 102 97 80 72 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.1 -49.4 -48.5 -48.3 -47.2 -46.4 -46.9 -47.6 -48.0 -47.1 -45.8 -45.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 48 53 50 53 48 45 42 43 30 34 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 36 39 37 40 43 42 36 34 29 31 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 19 35 53 124 119 100 70 79 91 154 251 200 MB DIV -1 31 71 89 41 66 62 32 47 21 14 57 26 LAND (KM) 1171 1239 1311 1437 1435 1286 1164 1010 1001 1120 1438 1525 1027 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.4 31.4 33.8 36.0 37.7 38.8 40.6 43.0 47.2 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 60.6 60.8 60.3 59.8 57.4 54.6 51.3 47.2 42.0 35.6 30.1 25.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 16 16 16 20 24 27 30 30 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 22 19 13 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -23. -35. -46. -54. -59. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -5. -3. -2. -5. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -26. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 1. 0. -5. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 2. -6. -21. -36. -46. -59. -69. -80. -90. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 32( 68) 28( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 30 11( 38) 0( 38) 0( 38) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)