* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 71 80 86 91 95 97 99 102 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 71 80 86 91 95 97 99 102 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 57 62 71 81 90 97 102 101 99 96 SHEAR (KT) 1 1 12 15 12 14 7 9 1 13 17 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 4 5 6 10 9 10 6 4 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 350 325 10 34 44 16 12 18 337 261 227 252 199 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 153 159 167 166 163 159 157 157 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 151 155 160 164 160 157 151 145 143 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -50.5 -50.4 -49.8 -50.4 -49.8 -50.1 -49.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 51 50 49 51 46 47 44 51 55 57 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 21 22 24 24 26 26 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 42 35 25 14 11 -2 -4 0 22 30 22 23 35 200 MB DIV 16 14 -2 13 10 15 23 -4 18 42 69 34 23 LAND (KM) 1352 1282 1220 1140 1008 846 710 477 358 425 614 760 937 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.8 20.4 22.1 24.0 26.0 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.7 50.4 52.2 53.9 56.9 59.0 61.2 63.1 64.6 65.4 67.0 69.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 13 11 12 12 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 43 59 83 85 87 100 102 90 70 52 62 48 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 6. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 26. 35. 41. 46. 50. 52. 54. 57. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 71.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)