* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 49 58 61 65 68 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 49 58 61 65 68 69 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 50 55 57 59 63 66 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 11 7 2 4 11 18 15 13 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 1 3 5 -2 -1 4 0 9 11 SHEAR DIR 77 73 84 90 90 26 274 250 215 264 336 335 324 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.9 28.5 28.5 28.9 29.4 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 140 140 134 139 148 148 154 162 160 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 144 144 143 138 145 154 153 157 164 159 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -52.0 -50.9 -50.8 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 9 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 62 59 62 59 56 53 55 50 49 51 55 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 11 12 14 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 23 30 40 42 33 24 -4 -38 -41 5 24 200 MB DIV -7 -10 -8 -11 -22 10 21 37 33 -14 30 48 55 LAND (KM) 897 1038 1186 1356 1529 1943 1812 1584 1448 1221 941 744 910 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.7 20.4 22.9 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 25.4 26.9 28.4 30.1 31.7 35.6 39.9 44.4 48.8 53.1 57.0 60.5 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 20 22 22 21 21 20 20 21 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 16 17 16 11 28 50 51 82 71 64 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 31. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 24. 33. 36. 40. 43. 44. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/28/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)