* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/28/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 32 28 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 16 15 16 17 16 16 12 9 11 13 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 2 1 2 0 1 -4 0 -2 3 1 5 SHEAR DIR 95 114 122 135 130 153 153 170 132 117 135 117 127 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 115 110 105 102 103 104 104 101 99 92 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 60 55 51 47 50 50 55 56 55 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 44 42 43 44 45 31 27 17 18 24 30 200 MB DIV 16 14 -6 -13 -1 -15 10 12 25 0 -11 -11 0 LAND (KM) 448 430 416 390 370 305 229 169 132 132 161 175 195 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.0 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.0 113.1 112.9 112.5 112.1 111.8 111.8 112.1 112.4 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -13. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -23. -34. -44. -53. -60. -65. -72. -74. -75. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/28/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/28/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY