* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 94 97 97 92 80 68 60 52 49 43 31 V (KT) LAND 95 93 94 97 97 92 80 68 60 52 49 43 31 V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 87 87 86 82 73 65 61 58 54 49 44 SHEAR (KT) 1 6 9 6 17 27 27 28 30 44 62 26 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 2 16 12 10 -3 0 0 0 -3 6 5 SHEAR DIR 176 239 190 228 216 224 222 222 216 219 210 153 68 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 27.8 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.8 24.7 23.5 18.9 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 149 144 136 126 119 114 114 106 99 82 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 131 128 121 111 104 98 98 93 88 76 71 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.8 -49.0 -48.4 -47.6 -46.0 -46.7 -46.9 -47.5 -47.4 -47.4 -46.0 -47.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 10 7 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 52 52 46 50 51 49 49 41 35 42 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 37 39 38 40 41 45 41 37 35 34 42 44 39 850 MB ENV VOR 0 18 39 54 87 121 100 76 103 132 174 286 257 200 MB DIV 39 75 89 45 79 112 23 66 27 6 53 14 30 LAND (KM) 1198 1308 1418 1434 1333 1167 991 879 981 1149 1410 1497 1096 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 29.3 30.2 31.5 32.8 35.5 37.8 39.5 40.3 41.9 44.3 48.6 54.2 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 60.8 60.4 59.5 58.6 55.9 52.3 48.6 44.7 40.3 35.2 30.7 26.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 15 16 18 17 16 17 20 24 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 19 15 10 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -13. -22. -30. -37. -41. -44. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -5. -4. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -23. -27. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. 2. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 2. 2. -3. -15. -27. -35. -43. -46. -52. -64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 16( 30) 20( 44) 13( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 1( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)