* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 71 79 86 93 96 99 99 100 98 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 71 79 86 93 96 99 99 100 98 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 60 66 71 82 92 100 106 107 104 97 91 SHEAR (KT) 2 15 18 12 9 8 11 8 4 16 28 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 5 6 13 4 7 1 0 -5 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 314 1 39 47 39 11 30 5 240 221 236 236 250 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 155 160 165 169 166 161 158 158 159 161 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 157 161 165 165 160 153 149 147 146 145 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -50.4 -49.2 -49.5 -49.4 -49.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 52 53 52 49 54 56 58 59 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 20 20 20 25 24 25 27 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 36 25 17 13 5 -2 -9 3 12 27 15 22 7 200 MB DIV 21 14 23 21 18 29 -14 56 21 58 30 89 0 LAND (KM) 1218 1165 1061 945 845 768 560 371 332 490 684 875 897 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.2 20.9 22.9 25.2 27.4 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 51.0 52.7 54.2 55.7 58.3 60.4 62.3 64.1 65.6 66.9 68.1 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 15 14 12 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 62 87 89 94 101 103 96 85 71 52 58 45 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 5. 6. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 21. 29. 36. 43. 47. 49. 49. 50. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)