* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 53 62 68 71 75 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 53 62 68 71 75 76 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 31 37 45 54 61 65 69 73 73 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 9 7 4 3 10 15 13 14 24 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 3 0 5 -1 -2 1 8 9 8 SHEAR DIR 69 76 78 73 69 9 261 243 241 292 340 316 294 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 141 141 139 134 145 148 151 162 162 159 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 144 146 143 139 153 155 156 168 165 158 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.0 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 63 61 54 55 50 52 56 60 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 14 15 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 30 42 43 35 36 13 -26 -41 10 64 28 200 MB DIV -10 -18 -17 -6 0 23 33 46 26 27 47 116 55 LAND (KM) 1020 1172 1330 1524 1720 1952 1672 1461 1283 1047 715 733 1066 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.5 16.2 17.0 17.9 19.3 21.4 24.6 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 28.3 29.8 31.7 33.5 37.7 42.3 47.0 51.6 55.8 59.7 63.3 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 17 18 19 22 23 22 22 21 22 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 17 16 13 13 46 52 65 79 61 55 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 28. 37. 43. 46. 50. 51. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/28/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)