* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/28/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 28 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 21 19 16 20 14 14 14 16 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 0 2 2 -3 -2 -1 1 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 104 111 122 131 145 148 157 146 123 122 123 121 150 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.5 24.5 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 116 113 112 111 113 115 116 117 115 105 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 66 61 56 55 50 53 53 59 59 63 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 36 35 39 40 46 25 22 8 20 19 29 200 MB DIV 15 -14 -21 0 0 -1 24 13 11 10 9 6 -16 LAND (KM) 406 375 347 325 304 259 198 166 158 150 168 223 216 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.0 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.4 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.5 112.5 112.5 112.4 112.1 111.6 111.3 111.1 111.1 111.4 112.3 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -32. -42. -49. -55. -60. -64. -65. -64. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/28/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/28/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY