* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANIELLE AL062010 08/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 93 94 92 82 67 54 43 33 27 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 92 93 94 92 82 67 54 43 33 27 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 90 87 86 84 75 65 57 54 50 44 39 36 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 15 32 36 28 38 51 63 67 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 13 11 12 0 -1 -2 0 5 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 257 233 232 211 210 221 211 218 227 221 192 107 357 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.1 26.1 25.4 24.3 25.0 22.7 18.6 14.6 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 146 136 129 116 109 103 111 96 79 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 131 124 114 99 92 91 100 88 72 69 69 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.5 -49.0 -48.3 -47.5 -47.1 -47.5 -47.6 -47.7 -46.0 -44.7 -43.3 -45.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 8 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 53 53 49 52 45 40 39 37 30 35 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 37 36 38 41 44 43 37 34 31 31 36 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR 4 19 40 73 112 102 116 122 130 180 270 335 200 200 MB DIV 63 69 55 79 77 47 20 14 14 42 47 32 1 LAND (KM) 1271 1415 1469 1334 1220 984 833 738 944 1319 1386 1406 1084 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 30.1 31.2 33.0 34.7 37.8 39.2 40.5 42.1 44.9 48.8 52.5 55.8 LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.1 59.4 58.2 57.0 54.7 53.2 49.8 43.1 36.1 29.2 31.0 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 17 20 19 13 12 20 28 30 21 24 29 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 17 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -17. -27. -34. -41. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -16. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -24. -29. -34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. -1. -3. -6. -6. -2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. -1. -3. -13. -28. -41. -52. -62. -68. -73. -84. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062010 DANIELLE 08/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 14( 29) 13( 38) 8( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)