* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 08/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 65 74 83 85 91 95 94 95 93 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 65 74 83 85 91 95 94 95 93 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 57 61 66 76 86 92 96 96 94 90 86 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 8 8 14 10 12 7 14 19 23 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 5 6 5 7 5 2 1 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 9 35 44 19 6 29 313 279 288 229 229 236 264 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 160 164 169 168 163 159 158 158 161 163 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 157 161 163 167 164 155 149 148 146 148 147 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.1 -50.0 -50.0 -49.6 -49.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 51 47 47 46 50 53 57 61 61 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 19 20 20 24 21 26 28 27 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 25 15 12 2 -7 -10 -9 1 9 27 11 31 39 200 MB DIV 16 23 7 -12 -5 28 17 39 30 51 64 49 67 LAND (KM) 1169 1076 948 860 794 670 456 329 349 523 681 936 778 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.5 23.4 25.6 28.1 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.6 54.2 55.6 57.0 59.4 61.4 63.2 65.0 66.7 68.1 69.1 69.6 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 88 90 93 99 108 101 87 78 52 57 61 39 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 24. 33. 35. 41. 45. 44. 45. 43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 08/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 08/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)