* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972010 08/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 60 66 72 75 78 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 60 66 72 75 78 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 53 59 64 70 77 80 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 8 5 4 3 7 12 12 7 15 18 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 3 1 4 0 -2 1 1 6 2 9 SHEAR DIR 64 65 79 79 34 337 254 222 254 307 348 323 313 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.9 28.5 28.6 29.1 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 137 134 139 148 150 157 166 160 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 143 142 138 145 156 156 163 171 161 156 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 60 63 60 61 59 54 55 50 50 55 57 62 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 11 12 14 16 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 22 31 43 45 42 31 34 10 -26 -21 20 38 43 200 MB DIV -19 -28 -19 -1 6 15 22 22 -14 25 48 63 64 LAND (KM) 1184 1355 1529 1741 1954 1796 1529 1366 1105 827 540 678 974 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.9 19.3 21.5 24.5 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 28.4 30.1 31.7 33.7 35.7 40.0 44.7 49.3 53.8 57.9 61.8 64.8 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 20 21 22 22 22 21 21 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 16 12 11 30 47 61 84 86 48 60 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 35. 41. 47. 50. 53. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972010 INVEST 08/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972010 INVEST 08/28/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)