* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP092010 08/28/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 16 20 17 15 21 16 15 10 10 9 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 0 0 -4 0 0 2 1 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 111 124 136 149 145 146 160 144 139 139 158 130 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.2 25.0 23.9 23.1 23.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 113 112 111 111 113 111 110 99 89 87 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 4 1 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 60 55 54 53 49 51 52 54 51 53 53 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 35 40 39 49 35 29 14 14 22 27 N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -12 -1 -4 -24 24 15 23 9 7 2 6 N/A LAND (KM) 348 324 302 277 251 230 183 159 141 159 102 92 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3 24.0 24.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.3 112.3 112.2 112.0 111.9 111.5 111.5 111.6 112.4 112.8 112.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 0 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -20. -28. -38. -47. -53. -57. -62. -64. -62. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092010 FRANK 08/28/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092010 FRANK 08/28/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY